Nowcasting Romanian GDP and GDP components using factor models

Abstract

Abstract. The conduct of monetary as well as fiscal policies and, in general, sound decision making of economic agents requires assessments about the current state of the economy. High-quality information about economic activity is a key ingredient in the timely identification of broader economic trends and business cycle turning points. However, official GDP estimates are reported on quarterly frequency and with substantial delays. In the case of Romania, similarly to other countries of the EU, the first estimate of real GDP growth usually is revealed six weeks after the end of the reference period. The second estimate, which reveals more detailed sector level statistics as well, is published with 11-week lag.